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My Oscar Picks–Based on Not Seeing Any of the Movies!

84th Annual Academy Awards - ArrivalsSince single digit age, I’ve spent Oscar night glued to television, except when I lived in France because we didn’t have TV (THANKS, Mom and Dad). Coincidentally, during those crucial years I thrived intellectually–doing four hours of homework, learning the insides of a carrot, figuring multiplication tables and reciting Rimbaud. But whatever, like, times have changed. My brain is now a potpourri of celebrity stats, romance novels, and cat videos (no complaints here). I’m sure I’m not alone in preparing my predictions for tonight’s winners:

Ellen Degeneres as Host:

Oscar hosting is a lost cause, but Ellen will be delightful, as long as she doesn’t do too many “bits” or costume changes. She should just be her hilarious self, poking fun at the stars. The Oscar audience is impossible to please anyway. No one since Billy Crystal (and now, not even Billy can crack the ice) will succeed or host consecutive years–unless she somehow creates several “wow” moments over the course of the evening. My fantasy host is Ricky Gervais since you don’t know what to expect and he is severely un-PC–though this is why he won’t host.

Best Actress:

I’d like to say Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine because she’s the quintessential “great actress.” She could make this Oscar kiss her supporting Oscar for The Aviator. But then I think: Why not Sandra in Gravity? Maybe because of the wailing in space? Despite this, I’m rogue-ing and picking Sandra. She didn’t go ugly, skinny, drug addict or accent-y, but she did panic in space. Plus if Sandra and Matthew won, they’d pose together, which would be cute since they used to date. Full circle.

Update at 6:14pm EST: I’m changing my vote to Cate Blanchett. She is Duran Duran’s choice, so she is mine.

Best Actor:

Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club. First, I know how to spell his name without using Google. Second, his win comes from his ability to do what many teenagers (by many, I mean “me”) tried to accomplish in adolescence: near-death skinniness. I don’t condone it, he looked terrible and endangered his health, but the effort will win him the gold. This didn’t succeed for Christian Bale in The Machinist, though. And yet, for Matthew, this weight loss contrasts nicely with the years of baring his abs and posing on the beach. He will win. Plus, I thought he was brilliant in The Lincoln Lawyer (I did see this).

Best Supporting Actress:

Lupita Nyong’o: My choice is based purely on buzz. As with Gravity, Dallas Buyers Club, I didn’t see the flick but think she’s lovely, articulate and my money’s on her. Not even Julia will change my mind (I didn’t see August: Osage County, but did like Julia’s hairstyle).

Best Supporting Actor:

Jared Leto: I want Barkhad Abdi to win for Captain Phillips since the few clips I saw gave me chills–and he has an inspiring story. But my gut says Jordan Catalano will take it. He’s in drag! Plus, it would validate his body of work (and his body, because he also went deathly skinny for the role).

Best Screenplay:

Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack for Dallas Buyers Club

Best Adapted Screenplay:

John Ridley for 12 Years a Slave (Did not see it but I did watch the trailer. Looks like a powerful, heartbreaking story)

Best Animated Film:

Frozen. The constant comments by my Facebook friends say “Oscar.”

Best Director:

Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity. It’s in space. I didn’t watch this movie for medical reasons–the idea of being in space, wearing a space-suit and swinging around made me a little nauseous.

Best Picture:

American Hustle or Gravity, though leaning toward American Hustle because that’s the only one that seemed universally loved. I avoided this one because the 70s were an awkward time for me lookswise–overweight, too many freckles, and a perm because I wanted to look like Barbra Streisand in The Main Event! Wolf of Wall Street will get nothing. Wall Street greed isn’t celebrated in art as much as in the 80s.

Those are my picks! I will also keep careful track of Oscar speeches, i.e. who says “Oh God” or “I didn’t have a speech prepared”, who’s slurring and who seems the most uncomfortable with sexual innuendo in presenter bits. And of course, looking forward to the dresses!

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2 thoughts on “My Oscar Picks–Based on Not Seeing Any of the Movies!”

  1. I’ll be watching tonight with my friend John, who is a serious movie maven and tries to watch EVERYTHING that is nominated. He usually runs about 85% accurate. I, on the other hand, have only seen Gravity (and honestly, didn’t think it was that spectacular, but that’s just me) so my guesses with be about like yours. Still, it’s fun to watch everyone get dressed up. I’m still bitter because I think Emma Thompson (who I adore in everything anyway) was *brilliant* in Saving Mr. Banks, and was cheated by not being nominated. (That one is really worth seeing.)

  2. I agree that Emma was robbed. I just don’t understand the Academy sometimes. She’s such a pleasure to watch in absolutely everything she does. I would love to see her win Best Actress one of these days. I’ll watch these flicks as soon as I can rent them. Except Gravity freaks me out too much. Enjoy the Oscars with John!

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